A taxi driver in Birmingham has bought a ticket to watch Pakistan every time they played in the city for the last 30 years, except this time. He simply did not have the confidence in their batting to bother. It turns out he was right.
South Africa lived to fight another day in the Champions Trophy as their bowlers, woeful against India but wolfish against an fragile line-up, defended a barely-par total. In the absence of Dale Steyn and Morne Morkel, Lonwabo Tsotsobe led the pack with maturity while debutant Chris Morris added energy and Ryan McLaren backed them up at the death.
Misbah-ul-Haq was again Pakistan's lone ranger and again he could not take them over the line. He lacked support from everyone except Nasir Jamshed. By contrast, South Africa's anchor, Hashim Amla, enjoyed small contributions throughout the middle order.
In an almost exact replica to the England-Australia match that was played here on Saturday, Amla's 81 was as valuable as Ian Bell's 91 but it may never have swelled to that had Pakistan held on to an early chance. Amla was on 7 when he slashed at a short, wide delivery off Mohammad Irfan and presented a tough but takeable catch to Umar Amin at point. Amin dived, got fingers to it and then he watched it slip through. It was a moment that taught him a tough lesson: don't' drop Amla.
Over the last year, England, Australia and New Zealand have paid for that mistake. Pakistan may do so twice. They put Amla down at the Wanderers in March, he went on to score 122. Both then and now, South Africa came out winners.
Conditions could not have been more different to Johannesburg than they were in Birmingham. There it was a belter of a track on which runs rained. Here it was a sluggish surface that did not facilitate a free flow. Both teams started slowly, Pakistan ended that way too.
Mohammed Irfan and Junaid Khan kept South Africa to 36 runs in the first 10 overs and did not take wicket, although they could have had Amla. Morris, Tsotsobe and McLaren restricted Pakistan to 18 for 2 in the same period, which immediately made Pakistan's task more difficult.
By the 19th over, their required run rate had already ballooned to six an over and considering no one had scored at that rate at any stage of the game, it seemed unlikely Pakistan would. But Misbah marshalled proceedings in his usual, calm way. He saw off the good balls - and there were many which South Africa bowled - and waited to take advantage of anything that was occasionally tossed up or slightly wide.
AB de Villiers did a fine job of rotating his bowlers and was spoilt for choice with three seamers and three spinners. He used JP Duminy before Robin Peterson and it paid off, when Shoaib Malik was bowled by a delivery that rolled back onto his stumps, and brought Tsotsobe back at exactly the right time, after a first spell of five overs for six runs.
The left-armer used his variations well and bowled Jamshed an offcutter that he fed back. The tall man got down low and plucked it in his follow through. Misbah knew he had to battle on his own.
After 49 boundary-less deliveries, he cleared Morris over mid-on to release pressure but he was soon stranded. McLaren removed Umar Amin when he tried to go big and was caught at cover and Kamran Akmal, who was caught at point, in the same over and Pakistan's chase seemed over.
Misbah responded with a six over long-on and then his fight was also extinguished. He picked out midwicket from a Tsotsobe slower ball and left it to the tail to have some fun at the end. Instead, it was McLaren who helped himself to four wickets for five runs to ensure South Africa rounded up a convincing win.
They would not have been confident of that at the halfway stage. With 51 runs scored and six wickets falling in the last 10 overs of their innings, it seemed they had squandered the chance to build on a well-laid platform.
Even though Pakistan's three spinners cost them only 107 runs in 26 overs, Amla's 69-run stand with Faf du Plessis and the 41 put on by de Villiers and Duminy helped negate the collapse later on. South Africa will remain concerned about the four run-outs but showed significant improvement and will eye the last four.
Pakistan now look at the semi-finals from a greater distance and, although they are not out of the competition, they need West Indies to beat India on Tuesday. If Pakistan then beat India and West Indies triumph over South Africa in the final group games, three teams would have won one match and net run-rate will come into the equation.
25 overs Pakistan 75 for 3 (Jamshed 37*, Misbah 12*) need another 160 runs to beat South Africa 234 for 9 (Amla 81)
Despite the absence of Dale Steyn and Morne Morkel, South Africa's bowling was vastly improved from the India match because they did not persist with tame short balls. Lonwabo Tsotsobe was pinpoint accurate with his fuller length and gave away just six runs in his opening five-over spell while Morris did the damage.
In brand new boots, he appeared with the new ball and began with a wide but four deliveries later produced a beauty to remove Imran Farhat. After beating Farhat's outside edge, he got one to straighten from middle and off, sneak between bat and pad and sent off stump tumbling.
A period of 31 balls with just nine runs followed before Nasir Jamshed pounced on a half volley but South Africa still had a firm grip. Morris' only short ball was delivered to Mohammad Hafeez who could not resist. He pulled and was caught at square leg.
Shoaib Malik joined Jamshed in keeping vigil and the pair had to be patient against tight lines and limited run-scoring opportunities. Once, Aaron Phangiso bowled wide. Once, he tossed it up and Jamshed cashed in.
Before turning to his other specialist spinner, Robin Peterson, AB de Villiers gave the ball to Duminy who had immediate luck. He invited Malik to come forward to his third ball and the batsman accepted but didn't defend properly and by the time he realised the ball had rolled back towards his stumps, it was too late.
Misbah-ul-Haq joined Jamshed and found space more easily. With him at the crease, Pakistan will remain positive but they need to score at more than six runs an over to win the match.
Innings break South Africa 234 for 9 (Amla 81) v Pakistan
Pakistan's bowlers and a surface which became sluggish as the innings wore on kept South Africa on a leash at Edgbaston. With an eye on safety first, South Africa started conservatively, built a launchpad and then failed to do much anything with it against an attack that tested them with fuller lengths and strangled them with spin.
They managed just 100 runs in the last 20 overs and 51 in the last 10, in which time they also lost six wickets. But it was the four run-outs which dotted the period that would have caused South Africa most concern. Misbah-ul-Haq, the oldest man in the field, had the youngest legs and effected two of them, as well as taking a superb catch to blunt South Africa's attempts at a late surge.
Run-scoring did not come freely throughout the innings and the going was also slow up front, as Hashim Amla and Colin Ingram eked out 36 runs in the first 10 overs. That was acceptable because they suffered no damage in the wicket department although it could easily have gone the other way.
Amla was on 7 when he slashed at a short, wide delivery off Mohammad Irfan and presented a tough but takeable chance for Umar Amin at point. He dived, got fingers to it and then watched it slip through. It was a moment that taught him a tough lesson: don't drop Amla.
Over the last year, England, Australia and New Zealand have paid for that mistake. Pakistan may do so twice. They put Amla down in a Test at the Wanderers in March and he went on to score 122 in a match South Africa won. This time he finished on 81.
The dropped catch squandered Pakistan's good start after Irfan and Junaid Khan had kept a lid on things. Irfan presented the extra bounce, which troubled Amla, but also did well to pitch it up. Junaid beat the bat regularly but it was off him that the pressure eased in the 8th over. Even though Amla had been dropped and swung and missed at a few, it was then that he settled. His two boundaries, whipped off the pads both times, should have told Pakistan the tide had turned.
Mohammad Hafeez and Wahab Riaz were the change bowlers and Riaz loosened the grip. He was guilty of bowling too wide outside the off stump but Hafeez kept Pakistan's hand in. Ingram tried to sweep him but missed and was given out lbw.
Amla continued to look a little streaky. In the absence of a slip, he edged Hafeez for four and then was almost run-out when he called Faf du Plessis through for a single but the throw to the bowler's end was inaccurate.
His fifty came off Saeed Ajmal, who South Africa played well. Instead it was Irfan they struggled against and when du Plessis tried to pull him, he was undone by extra lift and toe-ended the ball to cover.
South Africa would not have been too concerned because a platform had been laid and Amla was joined AB de Villiers. The captain struck the only six of the innings, off Shoaib Malik, but struggled for momentum in the wake of Amla's departure. Playing the reverse sweep, Amla was undone by bounce and caught at short third man.
Then things became more difficult. De Villiers and JP Duminy were strangled by spin and frustration built. As the last ten overs dawned, Duminy looked for a single after hitting the ball straight to mid-on and soon realised there wasn't one. He sent AB de Villiers back and, in scenes reminiscent of 1999, he slipped mid-pitch and was easily run-out by Misbah.
Duminy perished in eerily similar fashion. Two overs later, he set off when David Miller pushed the ball to midwicket, fell over as he tried to 180 and was another victim for Pakistan's captain.
Miller had been sent in as a finisher but struggled to get going. Robin Peterson struck two boundaries in the penultimate over but three wickets in seven balls at the end of the innings meant South Africa finished below-par and will have to bowl well sans Dale Steyn and Morne Morkel to keep themselves in the hunt.
Hashim Amla was on 7 when he slashed at a short, wide delivery for the first time in his innings. His bat made contact and the chance went the way of Umar Amin, who was brought into the Pakistan XI for this match in place of Asad Shafiq, at backward point. It was a tough but takeable and Amin couldn't.
He made a valiant effort, dived, got fingers to it and watched it slip through. Don't drop Hashim Amla has become a mantra for most teams. Over the last year, England, Australia, New Zealand and even Pakistan have paid for that mistake. Pakistan, again.
When they put Amla down at the Wanderers in March, he went on to score 122 in a match South Africa won. At the halfway stage of this innings, he was on 63.
The dropped catch squandered Pakistan's good start after Mohammed Irfan and Junaid Khan kept a lid on things for the first ten overs. Irfan presented the extra bounce, which troubled Amla, but also did well to pitch it up. Junaid beat the bat regularly but it was off him that the pressure eased in the 8th over.
Amla had been dropped, had swung and missed at a few and then settled. His two boundaries, whipped off the pads both times, should have told Pakistan the tide had turned. Still, the going was slow and South Africa were held to 36 without loss off the Powerplay before Pakistan introduced spin.
Mohammad Hafeez and Wahab Riaz were the change bowlers and they loosened the grip. Riaz was guilty of bowling too wide outside the off stump but bringing on Hafeez paid off. Colin Ingram, who had been patient up front, went on the sweep and was hit on the front pad. He was given out and considered reviewing but Amla's nod in the direction of the decision convinced him not to.
Amla continued to look a little streaky. In the absence of a slip, he edged Hafeez for four and then was almost run-out when he called Faf du Plessis through for a single but the throw to the bowler's end was inaccurate.
Saeed Ajmal caused a few problems as he beat Amla with a doosra but he will need to do much more than that if Pakistan are to restrict South Africa to a gettable total.
South Africa: 1 Colin Ingram, 2 Hashim Amla, 3 Faf du Plessis, 4 AB de Villiers (capt & wk), 5 JP Duminy, 6 David Miller, 7 Ryan McLaren 8 Robin Peterson 9 Chris Morris, 10 Aaron Phangiso, 11 Lonwabo Tsotsobe
Pakistan: 1 Imran Farhat, 2 Nasir Jamshed, 3 Mohammad Hafeez, 4 Umar Amin, 5 Misbah-ul-Haq (capt), 6 Shoaib Malik, 7 Kamran Akmal, 8 Wahab Riaz, 9 Saeed Ajmal 10 Junaid Khan, 11 Mohammed Irfan
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